Just as I was growing accustomed to a no-deal where we divorced ourselves from the rules and regulations of the European Union I received the glad tidings that we had a trade deal with Singapore. Hurray.
While in the EU we benefitted through the 40 trade deals the EU has with other countries or economic groups. They accounted for just 11% of our trade. We have rolled over (continued) 27 of these deals on our own account. We also have deals or hope to broker deals worth 40% of our overseas trade. The odd 49% is our trade with the EU, we will not have an agreement with them.
So over half of our trade will be under World Trade Organisation rules. No, there must be a mistake, where did that word ‘rules’ come from. No one ever said there would be more rules replacing the EU rules. Rules? What do these rules cover. Well, they are to control anti-import tariffs, ease custom procedures, discourage domestic laws and taxes that may be described as protection and reduce quotas and subsidies.
Hang on, we’re leaving the EU to escape rules which are remarkably similar to those of the WTO. And don’t forget that by the time we have negotiated a trade deal, it will be even closer to the EU’s rules. For example, Canada has spent four years negotiating a deal with the EU. As the UK is only part of Canada’s trade with Europe and the Canadians will not want to upset the EU, there is no way we’ll get a deal that is better than the EU one.
Don’t worry, say the anti-Europeans, we’ll do more trade with Australia, New Zealand and all our old pals in the Commonwealth. Don’t bet on it. The whole EU business with Australia (with WTO rules) only puts it third behind Japan and China in Australia’s trade figures, so our proportion of that will not be large. What we must not forget, countries will not do a deal with us unless there is something in it for them. What will the Australians want? I’m sure food exports would be part of their deal, but their meat hygiene standards are similar to the US and probably do not meet our current criteria.
Theresa May’s deal does not look so shabby now. And of all that money we are saving from coming out of the EU and are going to put into the NHS, it appears up to £10bn has already been earmarked to subside British businesses like car manufacture, fishermen, sheep farmers and chemical suppliers.
Never mind, all these things will work themselves out, but don’t anticipate a quick fix. The WTO’s Doha development round started in 2001 and has dragged on ever since.